Dear Valued Clients,
Global trade and transportation conditions continue to shift as we head into October, with capacity adjustments, labor uncertainty, infrastructure disruptions and higher fuel-related costs affecting key markets.
This update highlights the latest developments and potential impacts on global supply chains.
TRANS-PACIFIC: CONGESTION AND CAPACITY ADJUSTMENTS CONTINUE
Trans-Pacific conditions remain active as U.S.-bound demand, Far East port congestion and carrier capacity adjustments continue to influence the market. Asia–U.S. spot rates remain elevated but have begun to soften as carriers prepare for the traditional post-Golden Week slowdown.
Capacity management is also contributing to uncertainty. Maersk, for example, announced the suspension of its standalone TPX trans-Pacific service ahead of Golden Week, reducing available capacity on the trade.
Shippers should continue to plan bookings in advance and allow additional time for potential rollovers, schedule changes and congestion-related delays.
GERMAN PORTS: LABOR UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES
Labor negotiations involving Germany’s major ports remain unresolved. The latest employer offer has been rejected, anda union vote is scheduled to conclude October 1. If 75% of members reject the offer, negotiations could be declared unsuccessful and the union may proceed with indefinite strike action. No additional strike action has been announced at this time.
Any disruption could put additional pressure on terminal operations, inland transportation and cargo moving through Hamburg, Bremerhaven and other German gateways.
LOS ANGELES/LONG BEACH: VINCENT THOMAS BRIDGE CLOSURE
The Vincent Thomas Bridge is scheduled to fully close on November 1, 2026, for approximately 16 months as part of a major bridge deck replacement project. Ports and terminals will remain operational, but truck traffic currently using the bridge will be diverted to alternate routes throughout the port complex.
The additional traffic could result in longer truck turn times, appointment challenges and fewer driver turns per day, potentially adding pressure to drayage capacity and costs. Phoenix will continue working with our drayage partners to assess potential service impacts as the closure approaches.
MIDDLE EAST: SAUDI OIL EXPORT ROUTES BEGIN TO RECOVER
Saudi Arabia has resumed oil loadings from its Red Sea port of Yanbu following the restart of the East-West Pipeline, which provides an important alternative export route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.
The resumption provides some relief for regional oil exports, but transportation conditions remain challenging. War-risk insurance costs have increased, while security concerns around the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb continue to affect vessel movements and operating costs.
The situation remains fluid and could continue to have implications for global fuel prices and transportation costs.
OCEAN FREIGHT: EMERGENCY FUEL AND BUNKER RECOVERY CHARGES
Ocean carriers continue to introduce and adjust emergency fuel and cost-recovery surcharges as elevated fuel prices affectvessel operating costs.
CMA CGM recently announced a new Emergency Fuel Surcharge effective October 1, citing higher bunker prices and renewed escalation around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. MSC has also announced a Regional Cost Recovery surcharge for certain Europe-to-Middle East services, while Maersk has implemented emergency cost-recovery surcharges on certain Middle East LCL services.
Customers should expect continued carrier adjustments as fuel prices and operating conditions evolve. Phoenix will communicate applicable surcharge updates as they are announced.
U.S.–CHINA TRADE: POTENTIAL TARIFF RELIEF FOR SELECT PRODUCTS
The U.S. and China have released reciprocal lists of non-sensitive products valued at approximately $30 billion on each side that are eligible for lower tariff treatment. The U.S. list includes 1,619 categories of exports to China, including agricultural goods, personal care products, coal and medical equipment.
More than 90% of products included on the lists are expected to receive most-favored-nation tariff treatment, potentially reducing or eliminating additional country-specific tariffs. Strategic sectors remain excluded, and implementation timing and final tariff treatment are still developing.
For companies trading between the U.S. and China, these changes could affect landed costs, sourcing decisions and trade volumes for eligible products.
INDIA: U.S. TRADE TALKS AND OPERATIONAL CONDITIONS
India and the United States continue negotiations toward an interim trade agreement, with Indian Trade Minister Piyush Goyal visiting the U.S. from September 29 through October 5 for discussions with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Tariff treatment remains a key part of the discussions.
India also faces uncertainty related to potential U.S. trade measures targeting countries that continue purchasing Russian oil. With India importing approximately 90% of its crude oil, changes in energy prices and sourcing could have broader implications for trade and transportation costs.
Operationally, ocean capacity into North America remains relatively tight, with strong demand from the broader India, Middle East and Africa region. Conditions at Mundra and Nhava Sheva have improved, although container dwell times, truck congestion and gate delays continue to affect some operations.
Phoenix is monitoring both the trade negotiations and operational conditions for customers with India–U.S. import and export activity.
The Phoenix Perspective
As we head into October, global supply chains continue to face pressure from capacity adjustments, potential labor disruptions, infrastructure constraints and higher fuel-related costs. At the same time, developments in Middle East energy flows and U.S.–China trade could influence transportation costs, sourcing decisions and global trade patterns.
Phoenix will continue to monitor these developments and work closely with our carrier, drayage and global partners to help customers understand potential impacts to cost, capacity and service levels.
