Dear Valued Clients,
As we approach Golden Week and Q4, global transportation markets remain under pressure from tight capacity, schedule disruptions, port congestion, and rising transportation costs.
OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET
Transpacific Rates Approach Pandemic-Era Records
The Transpacific market continues to tighten as we head into the final week of September. According to the latest analysis from Xeneta, spot rates from the Far East to the U.S. have increased more than 320% since late February and current levels are now within approximately 18% of the previous U.S. West Coast pandemic era record and 11% of the U.S. East Coast record.
The market is particularly notable because carriers are managing capacity very closely despite adding capacity in certain markets. Eastbound Transpacific utilization remains elevated, with Sea-Intelligence data indicating that 2026 utilization is approximately eight percentage points above pre-pandemic levels. Strong demand, carrier capacity discipline, ongoing disruptions in Asia, and shippers moving cargo ahead of China’s Golden Week are all contributing to the current rate environment.
Looking ahead, the market could see another rate increase at the beginning of October as shippers rush to move cargo ahead of the Golden Week holiday. Rates may begin to soften, or at least see their pace of growth slow, following the holiday period depending on demand and how carriers manage capacity.
Container Rolls & Schedule Reliability Remain a Concern
Schedule reliability and booking availability remain significant concerns, with congestion, vessel bunching, blank sailings, and disrupted feeder connections contributing to increased container rolls and shifting ETDs.
Maersk recently announced that its standalone TPX extra-loader service will be suspended for the remainder of Q4, reducing the carrier’s weekly Transpacific capacity by more than 10%. Other carriers have also announced blank sailings around Golden Week as demand is expected to slow following the holiday.
For importers, securing a booking does not necessarily guarantee departure on the originally scheduled vessel. Cargo may still be rolled or experience a changed ETD as carriers adjust vessel schedules and manage capacity.
U.S. WEST COAST PORTS & INLAND CAPACITY
Record Volumes Are Creating Additional Inland Pressure
The Port of Long Beach handled a record 919,922 TEUs in August, up 2% year over year. Imports increased 3.6%, while exports increased 4%.
The Port of Los Angeles also handled approximately 956,000 TEUs in August, matching its record August volume from 2025. Between June and August, Los Angeles handled more than 2.9 million TEUs, its strongest three month period on record.
However, the strong volumes are also creating concerns about capacity beyond the marine terminals. Long Beach officials have warned that the current surge is being driven in part by disruptions and cargo shifting between trade lanes rather than simply reflecting underlying market growth.
The combination of strong import volumes and constrained inland transportation could create additional pressure on drayage, rail, and container availability as we move into October. This is particularly important given the current Transpacific environment and the potential for another wave of cargo ahead of Golden Week.
For shippers and importers, the potential for disruption does not necessarily end when the vessel arrives. Early customs clearance, timely document submission, drayage planning, and coordination with rail providers will remain important as West Coast volumes remain elevated.
PANAMA CANAL
Further Restrictions Add Pressure to Asia–U.S. East Coast Services
The Panama Canal continues to manage vessel traffic in response to below average rainfall and water levels associated with the strengthening El Niño weather pattern.
The Canal Authority reduced available transit capacity beginning in September, including 23 daily Panamax slots as of September 15, and has warned that vessels arriving without a confirmed reservation may experience longer waiting times.
The Canal has also indicated that further restrictions may be necessary if water conditions deteriorate. Recent reporting indicates that daily transits could fall further in October, which would create additional pressure on an important route for Asia–U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast cargo.
The Panama Canal is also seeing increased competition for available capacity from energy related vessels as global shipping patterns continue to adjust to disruptions in the Middle East.
EUROPEAN PORTS
German Port Strike Risk
The possibility of an indefinite strike at Germany’s major ports remains an important development heading into October.
German union ver.di rejected the latest employment offer from the Central Association of German Seaport Operators, with approximately 11,000 port employees in Hamburg, Bremen, Bremerhaven, Emden, Brake, and Wilhelmshaven covered by the negotiations.
A new ballot is underway through the evening of October 1. If at least 75% of participating members vote to reject the offer and initiate indefinite strike action, the matter will move to ver.di’s Federal Tariff Commission for a decision.
A prolonged strike could affect terminal operations, vessel schedules, and inland transportation throughout Northern Europe. German freight forwarders have already been advised to prepare for potential restrictions affecting terminal handling and pre- and on-carriage.
Shippers moving cargo through German gateways should continue monitoring negotiations and allow additional flexibility for October shipments.
U.S. – CHINA TRADE & TARIFFS
Trade Policy Remains a Key Q4 Variable
U.S.-China trade policy remains an important consideration for importers heading into the fourth quarter. The U.S. is considering an additional 7.5% tariff on certain Chinese goods following a Section 301 investigation related to excess manufacturing capacity. The proposed increase could bring the applicable tariff level closer to the ceiling established during the current U.S.-China trade truce.
President Trump and President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Washington on September 24, with trade and the extension of the current tariff truce among the issues under discussion. The existing truce is scheduled to expire November 10, although recent discussions have included the possibility of extending it.
The final tariff rate, timing, and affected products remain subject to change. Importers with significant China exposure should continue monitoring developments closely as the September summit approaches.
ENERGY MARKETS & GLOBAL SHIPPING
Higher Energy Costs Continue to Filter Through Transportation
Ongoing instability in the Middle East continues to affect global energy and transportation markets. Disruptions to regional energy infrastructure and vessel movements have increased pressure on available tanker capacity and contributed to higher oil transportation costs.
The effects are extending beyond the energy sector. The Loadstar reports that oil prices above $100 per barrel are driving higher fuel costs across ocean, air, trucking, and intermodal transportation, with some carriers and logistics providers continuing to use weekly fuel adjustments rather than monthly mechanisms.
This creates additional cost uncertainty for shippers. Fuel surcharges can now move through transportation invoices much more quickly when energy prices change, while higher bunker and diesel costs can also influence carrier pricing and emergency surcharges.
For container shippers, the immediate impacts to monitor are fuel surcharges, bunker costs, potential emergency pricing, and continued uncertainty around vessel routing and global capacity.
The Phoenix Perspective
Multiple market indicators are pointing to the same conclusion: the primary challenge in today’s market is reliability rather than capacity alone.
While carriers have added capacity to certain trade lanes, booking acceptance risk, schedule variability, port congestion, and inland transportation constraints continue to create disruption throughout the supply chain.
As we move into Golden Week and the fourth quarter, shippers should continue planning further in advance, building flexibility into transit expectations, and maintaining close visibility over shipments from origin through final delivery.
Transpacific vessel capacity remains tightly managed as rates approach pandemic-era levels, while record import volumes at Southern California ports are putting additional pressure on drayage and intermodal networks. At the same time, congestion and schedule disruptions in Asia are increasing the risk of container rolls and delayed departures.
For importers, this means the potential for disruption extends beyond the vessel schedule. A container may experience a roll at origin, arrive later than planned, and then encounter limited drayage or rail availability once discharged.
As we move toward Golden Week and the fourth quarter, early planning and close shipment visibility will be increasingly important. Our teams continue to closely monitor carrier schedules, port conditions, equipment availability, regulatory developments, and geopolitical events so we can identify potential disruptions early and work proactively with our customers and carrier partners to minimize their impact.
