📌 Current U.S. Tariff Status (as of September 12, 2025)

• IEEPA Tariff Litigation at Supreme Court: On September 9, the Supreme Court agreed to hear arguments on the legality of President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs in early November. Until then, these tariffs remain in effect. If the Court upholds the lower Court’s ruling that found them unlawful, CBP would stop collecting IEEPA duties, and importers could qualify for refunds through automatic credits or by filing post-summary corrections and protests.

• U.S.–Japan Trade Agreement Taking Effect: Effective September 16, a new U.S.–Japan trade deal will apply a 15% baseline tariff on most Japanese imports. Goods with MFN tariffs above 15% will be subject to that MFN rate, while goods below 15% will be raised to 15%. U.S. duties on Japanese autos and parts will fall from 25% to 15%, and certain goods such as aerospace, pharmaceuticals, and raw materials will be exempt from reciprocal tariffs. The agreement applies retroactively to goods entered on or after August 7, 2025

• Modified Exemptions from Reciprocal Tariffs: Effective September 8, the scope of Annex II was revised, adding 52 HTS codes and removing 131. Nearly all copper products were removed from the exemption list, now subject to Section 232 duties. A total of 1,908 HTS subheadings may qualify for exemption, provided their country of origin has signed a reciprocal trade agreement with the U.S.

Source: whitehouse.gov, politico.com, whitehouse.gov

Freight Market Analysis

Market Conditions

TPEB (Trans-Pacific Eastbound)

• Demand remains subdued leading into Golden Week after earlier shipment pull-forwards. Rates are under pressure, with carriers implementing a September GRI and another increase expected later in the month. The Peak Season Surcharge has been postponed until October 15.

FEWB (Far East Westbound)

• Demand has weakened significantly, and no recovery is expected before Golden Week. The SCFI fell to $1,315 per TEU in Week 37, and spot rates are projected to decline another 5–10% in late September. Carriers are beginning Q4 contract talks but remain cautious about lowering rates below current FAK levels.

TAWB (Trans-Atlantic Westbound)

• Demand is steady, though rates softened slightly to around $1,900 per FEU in early September, about 5% lower than June. Overall market conditions remain balanced, with no major swings in volume.

Operational Updates

TPEB:

• Equipment availability has improved since July, and no widespread shortages are reported. A container incident at the Port of Long Beach on September 9 involved a ZIM-chartered vessel, but overall port operations remain unaffected.

FEWB:

• Destination port congestion continues to extend transit times, although origin equipment supply has stabilized, helping maintain smoother export operations.

TAWB:

• Heavy congestion persists at Antwerp, with dwell times of about eight days. Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Bremerhaven face delays of two to four days, while Southern Mediterranean ports report three to six days of disruption. Equipment shortages continue in Central and Eastern Europe.

Capacity Management

TPEB:

• Carriers are responding to overcapacity with blank sailings, including suspended services, while September space remains widely available.

FEWB:

• Space is open in the second half of September, and carriers are actively seeking additional cargo to support loadings.

TAWB:

• Overall vessel capacity remains steady, but inland origins continue to face equipment-related constraints.

Sources: xeneta.com, maersk.com, yangming.com, evergreen-line.com, supplychaindive.com

Sources: xeneta.com, maersk.com, yangming.com, evergreen-line.com, supplychaindive.com

Asia–Latin America Freight & Port Update

1) Freight Rate & Capacity Snapshot

Average spot rates eased again, with the global Drewry WCI down ~3% week-over-week to $2,044/FEU; Asia-origin lanes were mixed, but overall pricing pressure persists into mid-September. Operators report steady schedules on Asia–LATAM strings, with selective sailing adjustments used to balance loads.
Sources: drewry.co.uk

2) Port Operations & Infrastructure

Latin America gateways saw targeted schedule changes this week: one service omitted Manzanillo (MX) on Sept 9 and another omitted Callao (PE) on Sept 12, indicating localized congestion or operational constraints; other regional services reported no change. Day-to-day cargo operations at these ports continue with standard gate activity outside the specific omissions.
Sources: hapag-lloyd.com

3) Transshipment & Compliance Updates

No new enforcement measures were announced this week, but the 40% U.S. transshipment penalty remains in force under current policy tracking, keeping pressure on origin verification in Southeast Asian hubs that feed LATAM routings. Shippers using indirect routings should continue to budget potential +1–3 days for enhanced documentation checks where applied.
Sources: tradecomplianceresourcehub.com

Policy Split on Russian Oil Exports Creates Uncertainty for October Trade

Diverging U.S. and EU policies on Russian oil sales to India are expected to trim October shipments. Analysts estimate Russian crude flows to India will fall to about 1.4 million barrels per day, down from 1.6 million in September. The EU lowered its price cap to $47.60 per barrel, while the U.S. did not support the change. This policy divide is creating uncertainty for Indian buyers and encouraging shifts of some cargoes to China.